Maybe the decision will come down to the economy. Maybe it will hinge on how a presidential nominee performs.

There may be plenty of factors figuring in this year's race between the likely contenders for the 4th Congressional District seat, but campaign managers for Republican incumbent Christopher Shays and Democrat Jim Himes agree the campaign won't be like those in the past.

Michael Sohn and Maura Keaney, the campaign managers for Shays and Himes, respectively, acknowledge the economy is becoming a more critical factor in this year's race. But will that hurt Shays or help him by shifting debate from the war in Iraq, which appears to have eroded his support in the last two elections that he won narrowly?

Could a Barack Obama candidacy so energize urban Democrats that they provide the winning margin over Shays, or will Republican John McCain prove so appealing to the district's dominant unaffiliated voters that he will help Shays prevail?

And will Himes' background as a scholar and businessman, rather than elected officeholder, attract or turn off voters?

These are some of the emerging questions about the race as the Republican and Democratic nominating conventions take place over the next few days.

"Every campaign has its own story to tell," Sohn said.

"We're convinced it's a very winnable race," Keaney said. The 4th District Republicans convene at 5 p.m. Saturday in Darien Town Hall. Shays, who lives in Bridgeport, grew up in Darien.

Thus far,

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no challenge to his nomination for an 11th term has surfaced.

Democrats will hold their convention at 7 p.m. Monday in Cesar Batalla School in Bridgeport.

But even if Himes faces no challenge at the convention, one has already materialized, as Greenwich resident Lee Whitnum has requested petitions for a primary.

To get on the Aug. 12 primary ballot, she would need by June 10 to submit 2,459 signatures, representing 2 percent of the district's enrolled Democrats as of last October.

Any petitioning Republican would also need 2 percent of that party's total, or 1,974 GOP voter signatures.

The November ballot could also potentially list the names of other minor party candidates petitioning by Aug. 6 or named by the September deadline.

At one time, Shays had a virtual lock on the House of Representatives seat, attracting support from unaffiliated voters and even many Democrats. But in the last two elections, he beat Democrat and former Westport First Selectwoman Diane Farrell by 4 percentage points, as she challenged him over his support for the war in Iraq.