Minorities to be the majority by 2042?

"Minorities, now roughly one-third of the U.S. population, are expected to become the majority in 2042, with the nation projected to be 54 percent minority in 2050," the bureau said today in a press release.

Exactly what this means for the nation and Connecticut in particular is difficult to say. At its best, a state demographer believes this trend could lead to a nation where race is no longer an issue and people are judged by ability. But at its worst, according to a Bridgeport-based urban education activist, this trend could just push people into a segregated society with cities dominated by minority populations and suburbs by white ones.

The bureau said the Hispanic population is expected to nearly triple, rising from 46.7 million in 2008 to 132.8 million by 2050. Hispanics would account for 30 percent of the population by 2050, the bureau said.

As an ethnicity, Hispanics can be of any race, according to the bureau. The races in America are designated by acts of Congress; the most populous are white, black, Asian, Native American and Pacific Islander.

The non-Hispanic single-race white population will lose its place as the majority by 2042 because of an expected rise in deaths in the 2030s. However, birthrates among whites are expected to overtake deaths in the 2040s to show steady growth. The white

The black population will increase from 41.1 million in 2008 to 65.7 million in 2050, when blacks will grow from 14 percent of the population today to 15 percent.

The Asian population will more than double during the period, increasing from 15.5 million to 40.6 million.

Orlando Rodriguez, a demographer and manager of the University of Connecticut's State Data Center, said the trend is in keeping with what they've been tracking for the state, although he's not sure if Connecticut will cross the point of not having a dominant race at the same time. Projections for the state out to 2050 are not yet available.

"What's happening is there is a lot of ethnic mixing," Rodriguez said. "We're probably the most ethnically mixed society in history."

Rodriguez said you can see it in some neighborhoods and families, people of different races living together and marrying. He said tracking race and ethnicity in the census "is really becoming somewhat questionable.

"As we become more and more mixed, the whole race thing goes away," he said. But, he added, "We're not there yet."

The bureau said the number of people who identify themselves as being of two or more races is expected to triple, rising from 5.2 million in 2008 to 16.2 million by 2050.

One reason the bureau tracks race in America goes to Article I, Section II of the U.S. Constitution, which is related to the apportionment of the House of Representatives. That section says the representation will be based on the number of free persons, Indians who pay taxes and "three-fifths of all others" which covered slaves.

In the actual congressional act passed in 1790, Congress determined census marshals should document the color of skin of the people they counted as well as age and sex.

This future multi-ethnicity means the same thing to U.S. culture and society that the waves of immigrations in past eras meant, Rodriguez said.

The Hispanic population will probably become part of the American culture, he said, just like Italians and other people did. There will be a wider range of foods and new words, but, in the end, he said, the culture will remain what it is in America — decidedly utilitarian.

Rodriguez said it's really the absence of a defined culture that's helping the U.S. go through this shift more easily than other countries.

Other nations are ethnically diverse, but they're struggling at times with open conflict. Here, he said, "we mostly get along."

There has been a tremendous change in Americans' overall attitude about race in the last 30 years, he said, and there's no reason to expect there won't continue to be a shift toward a less racially focused mentality.

However, Rodriguez cautioned, there is some evidence of "re-segregation" occurring, including right here in Connecticut.

He said the state data center has found some of the wealthier suburbs are becoming less diverse and more white.

If Rodriguez is optimistic about race relations in the next 30 years, Vincent Siberon, executive director of Aspira, said what's happening in Bridgeport and other major Connecticut cities doesn't bolster that vision of hope.

Aspira is an advocacy group for better urban education and Latino and Latina achievement.

"We don't have an ethnically diverse school system," Siberon said. "It's a black and brown system with a smattering of white kids."

In the 2006-07 school year, according to the State Education Department, 9.4 percent of the students in Bridgeport's public schools were white, 45.4 percent Hispanic, 42.1 percent black and 3 percent Asian.

According to the U.S. Census Bureau, about 46 percent of Bridgeport's total population is white, 29 percent black, 38 percent Hispanic and 4.4 percent Asian.

"It's not like it was when I was growing up in Bridgeport in the 1950s," Siberon said. His Hollow neighborhood was home to a wider variety of ethnicities than the neighborhoods today. Then, he said, there were Poles, Italians, Irish, Puerto Ricans, blacks and a host of others living and learning together.

With that model, Siberon said he was shocked when he saw signs at a gas pump saying one side was for whites and the other for coloreds when he traveled to the South in 1966.

If Connecticut and the nation want to make sure they don't end up racially segregated, Siberon said, it's time to get serious about improving urban education, because that's the ticket to the suburbs for many families.

Ultimately, Siberon said, it's time for the state "To have an open and honest discussion about race."